It's amazing how many people are overthinking this fight.
Nacho is right about one thing: to win, Canelo will need to throw lots of combinations. Hitting Floyd clean with a good shot is hard even when his back is to the ropes, so Canelo shouldn't come into the fight expecting to land anywhere near 40-50% of his power shots as he has done in past fights. He also shouldn't expect one punch to change the fight. Canelo has good punching power, but he's not a devastating one-punch knockout artist and Floyd has a good chin. If Canelo wants to get to Floyd, take away his legs and set up a KO, he's going to have to maintain constant pressure from round 1 and throw a lot of punches, especially to Floyd's body.
The question: what evidence is there that Canelo can pull this off? In the Trout fight, Canelo averaged just ~35 total punches per round. As for the jab, he threw less than 20 jabs in 8 of the 12 rounds. Canelo floored Trout in the 7th, but despite his low punch output, he was already visibly winded by the 6th and found himself unable to follow up on the knockdown. Canelo may have won the Trout fight because Trout wasn't able to land many effective punches of his own, but it was hardly a "spectacular" display by an "offensive" fighter by any stretch of the imagination.
If the key to Canelo defeating Mayweather is an aggressive, sustained offense, there's little evidence that Canelo has the style or stamina to give Floyd a run for his money. In fact, a fighter with a history of being able to maintain a high punch output for 12 rounds - Robert Guerrero - had a much better capacity to fight the type of fight needed to beat Mayweather. And we saw what how easily Floyd took away all of Guerrero's weapons and neutralized the bully strategy Guerrero wanted to use.
Nacho is right about one thing: to win, Canelo will need to throw lots of combinations. Hitting Floyd clean with a good shot is hard even when his back is to the ropes, so Canelo shouldn't come into the fight expecting to land anywhere near 40-50% of his power shots as he has done in past fights. He also shouldn't expect one punch to change the fight. Canelo has good punching power, but he's not a devastating one-punch knockout artist and Floyd has a good chin. If Canelo wants to get to Floyd, take away his legs and set up a KO, he's going to have to maintain constant pressure from round 1 and throw a lot of punches, especially to Floyd's body.
The question: what evidence is there that Canelo can pull this off? In the Trout fight, Canelo averaged just ~35 total punches per round. As for the jab, he threw less than 20 jabs in 8 of the 12 rounds. Canelo floored Trout in the 7th, but despite his low punch output, he was already visibly winded by the 6th and found himself unable to follow up on the knockdown. Canelo may have won the Trout fight because Trout wasn't able to land many effective punches of his own, but it was hardly a "spectacular" display by an "offensive" fighter by any stretch of the imagination.
If the key to Canelo defeating Mayweather is an aggressive, sustained offense, there's little evidence that Canelo has the style or stamina to give Floyd a run for his money. In fact, a fighter with a history of being able to maintain a high punch output for 12 rounds - Robert Guerrero - had a much better capacity to fight the type of fight needed to beat Mayweather. And we saw what how easily Floyd took away all of Guerrero's weapons and neutralized the bully strategy Guerrero wanted to use.
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