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US interest rate hikes not fully absorbed yet. Check back in August.

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    #1

    US interest rate hikes not fully absorbed yet. Check back in August.

    The US Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates anytime soon. In fact they may need to raise rates again this summer. Totally contradicting the mass media which is never right anyway. Inflation has not been tamed asset prices have not declined which is always a result of interest rate hikes. Without this result inflation will continue on an upward path making it even more difficult to slow. If inflation, real estate, and stocks have not reversed there will be no rate decreases.

    If there is no slowdown by May look for the Fed to put another rate hike on the table. Rate hikes lag up to 29 months so that would be August of 2024. All this media talk about soft landing is premature.
    Fed rate increases can't demonstrate the ability to "tame" inflation. Milton Friedman's "lag" is the conceptual crutch that is invoked to explain this ineffectiveness.
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    #2
    Originally posted by 15round View Post
    The US Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates anytime soon. In fact they may need to raise rates again this summer. Totally contradicting the mass media which is never right anyway. Inflation has not been tamed asset prices have not declined which is always a result of interest rate hikes. Without this result inflation will continue on an upward path making it even more difficult to slow. If inflation, real estate, and stocks have not reversed there will be no rate decreases.

    If there is no slowdown by May look for the Fed to put another rate hike on the table. Rate hikes lag up to 29 months so that would be August of 2024. All this media talk about soft landing is premature.
    Some interesting stuff there.

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      #3
      Originally posted by markusmod View Post

      Some interesting stuff there.
      I sometimes read the Fed minutes. Believe me. When you hear someone say the media does not project the facts, it is true whether intentional or unintentional. They will print anything to grab someone's attention. They have been working this rate cut story for six months and people wake up every day looking to read something indicating there will be a soft landing. The rate cut in March was to be a slam dunk. Now it has moved to May. The Fed is worried now that they didn't cut enough because we are almost two years now and no change. People still in debt. High stock prices. High real estate prices. Jobs are okay. For those people who own stocks, real estate and have little or no debt, life is good.
      BoxingParadigm BoxingParadigm likes this.
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        #4
        Originally posted by 15round View Post
        The US Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates anytime soon. In fact they may need to raise rates again this summer. Totally contradicting the mass media which is never right anyway. Inflation has not been tamed asset prices have not declined which is always a result of interest rate hikes. Without this result inflation will continue on an upward path making it even more difficult to slow. If inflation, real estate, and stocks have not reversed there will be no rate decreases.

        If there is no slowdown by May look for the Fed to put another rate hike on the table. Rate hikes lag up to 29 months so that would be August of 2024. All this media talk about soft landing is premature.
        The Federal Reserve's true job is to control inflation which went out of control due to ***** printing billion of new dollars. The damage is done on as price of food, shelter, and energy costs ( not gas which is based on supply and demand ) has gone way up. Have they ever gone down in you life time?

        A downturn in the economy looms at the commercial real estate end the banks and credit cards companies default when the bill is due. Not to mention the average debt per consumer with its pilling bills... soon millions of citizens will default on the banks and credit card companies too.

        Continuation of current federal budget policies would escalate total federal debt held by the public from about 100 percent of GDP today to almost 225 percent by 2050. A nation can not survive under this for long.

        We need to up the taxes for foreign companies big time, companies who make over 500 million a year and private billionaire to pay for the debt. And transform our cheap labor.

        While getting rid of ***** will help, but ***** is not the man to address this problem either. He can fix things short term though. Maybe Ronald Reagan if he was in his political prime could get us out if this impending monstrous financial doom.

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          #5
          Do you think the Fed Reserve had done its job? I don't see inflation at the 2% target yet the Fed is ready to break out the champagne.

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            #6
            Originally posted by 15round View Post

            I sometimes read the Fed minutes. Believe me. When you hear someone say the media does not project the facts, it is true whether intentional or unintentional. They will print anything to grab someone's attention. They have been working this rate cut story for six months and people wake up every day looking to read something indicating there will be a soft landing. The rate cut in March was to be a slam dunk. Now it has moved to May. The Fed is worried now that they didn't cut enough because we are almost two years now and no change. People still in debt. High stock prices. High real estate prices. Jobs are okay. For those people who own stocks, real estate and have little or no debt, life is good.
            I take mental notes reading through it all.

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