Carl Frampton Teaches Lesson on Perils of Pre-Fight Planning

By Lyle Fitzsimmons

Well, Leo Santa Cruz, it was fun while it lasted.

Being the fight nerd that I unashamedly am, I spent a sizeable chunk of my Saturday afternoon – hours prior to the start of Showtime’s three-bout main card from the Barclays Center in Brooklyn – going ahead and making a list of what would come next for the 126-pound king after he beat Carl Frampton.

Revisionist history tells me I should have known better.

Not only do I have an occasionally iffy history when it comes to picking high-profile fights, but the concerns often double when I decide to go out on a limb and pick against a guy for whom I’ve long been a journalistic champion.

Frampton was one of those guys. I loved his style from the first time I saw him several years ago, and I’d long suggested I’d not be convinced he’d lose until I actually saw it with my own eyes.

Problem is, I had the same vibe about Santa Cruz.

And it was a combination of two things – the issues Frampton had with Scott Quigg, and the matter-of-fact confidence that Santa Cruz exuded in a solo conversation not long before fight night – that put me over the top thinking the Mexican-turned-Californian would vanquish the Northern Irishman.

Which is why I was indulging my inner matchmaker during my weekend downtime.

Given the late-round stoppage that I decided was a Saturday night certainty, I strung together a full complement of next moves for Santa Cruz, including a last stop at featherweight to unify with Gary Russell Jr. and a varied palette of options at 130 pounds that included surnames like Salido, Walters and Lomachenko.

A fantastical possibility, I realize. Not only because promotional allegiances would make the fights hard to make, but also because the quality of the foes would make it unlikely he’d run the table.

Nevertheless, there was one more dream fight particular I spent the late evening pondering.

Santa Cruz versus the guy who wound up playing a dominant final appetizer to he and Frampton’s main course: Mikey Garcia.

Promotional haggling and courtroom maneuvering robbed Garcia of 131 prime weeks before the Californian, now 28, returned for a fifth-round demolition of former 126-pound claimant Elio Rojas.

And given the level of his performance as the opening act, it's only natural to want to see him headline.

But while Garcia has suggested he'll try to till ground at lightweight, the idea that he and Santa Cruz could get together at some point is not at all disqualified by their sizes or styles.

In fact, Garcia's height (5-foot-7) and reach (68 inches) fall just short of Santa Cruz's 5-foot-7-1/2 and 69 inches, and his smooth, counter-punching approach would be a natural blend with the Mexican's inclination to press the action and wear at his opponent's mettle.

“Mikey Garcia vs. Leo Santa Cruz is a terrific fight at 130, if Garcia can continue to make 130 pounds,” Randy Gordon, host of “At The Fights" on SiriusXM Satellite Radio, told me.

“I think it's an action-packed fight all the way.”

I agreed with the former New York State Athletic Commission boss, but once the narrow but fair loss to Frampton arrived later, my dream was sidetracked if not outright dashed.

It’s going to take a trip to Belfast – or wherever the respective camps can hammer out a deal – and a decisive victory in a rematch to clear the decks for Santa Cruz to make the necessary move up the weight class ladder, which by then could be a moot point if Garcia instead finds his pot of gold at 140.

In the meantime, I guess I’ll settle for what might have been.

And if I’d had it to do over again, I’d just go ahead and pick Frampton.

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This week’s title fight schedule:

TUESDAY

WBC minimum title – Chonburi, Thailand

Wanheng Menayothin (champion/No. 8 IWBR) vs. Saul Juarez (No. 1 WBC/No. 4 IWBR)

Menayothin (42-0, 17 KO): Fourth title defense; Stoppage wins in three straight 12-rounders

Juarez (23-4-1, 12 KO): First title fight; Lost decision in only fight outside Mexico

Fitzbitz says: I see the records and I know who’s fighting at home. Nevertheless, I can’t shake the feeling that the champion’s resume is a tad thinner than numbers might suggest. Juarez in 9

FRIDAY

IBO super featherweight title – Johannesburg, South Africa

Jack Asis (champion/No. 32 IWBR) vs. Malcolm Klassen (No. 9 IBO/Unranked IWBR)

Asis (35-18-5, 18 KO): First title defense; Eighteen losses between 2002-11, none since (14-0-1, 8 KO)

Klassen (32-6-2, 17 KO): Sixth title fight (2-3); Two reigns as IBF champ at 130 (zero defenses)

Fitzbitz says: As much as I like the Australian’s resurgence and his nickname (“Assassin”), he’s simply not accomplished the things Klassen has. Unless the South African has faded, he’ll win. Klassen by decision

IBO super flyweight title – Johannesburg, South Africa

Gideon Buthelezi (champion/No. 10 IWBR) vs. Carlos Ruben Dario Ruiz (Unranked IBO/Unranked IWBR)

Buthelezi (17-5, 4 KO): Second title defense; Three straight wins since 2-3 stretch from 2011 to 2015

Ruiz (21-7, 10 KO): First title fight; Has lost three of four career fights outside Argentina

Fitzbitz says: If you’ve lost four of five fights and five of nine fights, chances are pretty good that a world championship claim isn’t in your imminent future. That’s the logic here. Buthelezi by decision

Last week’s picks: 0-3 (LOSS: Sor Singyu, Williams, Santa Cruz)

2016 picks record: 56-14 (80.0 percent)

Overall picks record: 788-262 (75.0 percent)

NOTE: Fights previewed are only those involving a sanctioning body's full-fledged title-holder – no interim, diamond, silver, etc. Fights for WBA "world championships" are only included if no "super champion" exists in the weight class.

Lyle Fitzsimmons has covered professional boxing since 1995 and written a weekly column for Boxing Scene since 2008. He is a full voting member of the Boxing Writers Association of America. Reach him at fitzbitz@msn.com or follow him on Twitter – @fitzbitz.