In their first fight on May 18, Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury emptied their vast offensive and defensive arsenals in a 12-round thriller. Fury looked in command through the first half of the fight, but Usyk worked his way back into the bout, wobbling Fury badly and battering him around the ring in the ninth round. The official knockdown in that round proved the difference as Usyk took home a split decision by scores of 115-112, 114-113, and 113-114. Ahead of their December 21 rematch, BoxingScene writers gave their predictions for the second edition of one of the closest, best heavyweight matchups in recent decades.
Kieran Mulvaney: I've been a booster of Usyk since he first showed up on HBO, but before the first fight with Fury, I picked the big Brit to win because I thought his size advantage would nullify Usyk's skills. I was tempted to pick Fury again, on the basis that this time, he might take Usyk more seriously and probably wouldn't mug to the crowd like an idiot again. But in his last couple fights, he's been dropped by a non-boxer and nearly stopped by an ex-cruiserweight, and I suspect that he may, in fact, be on the downslope. That doesn't mean he can't find one more big win, but I now think Usyk's skills and—importantly—dedication to his craft will see him to a decision victory again. Prediction: Usyk by decision
Owen Lewis: Usyk’s defeat of Fury in May felt miraculous. Making the fight in the first place proved a nightmare; the size difference was comical; Usyk trailed at the midpoint; he started his charge not a single round too soon; he found, in Fury’s words, “a punch from the gods” in the ninth round; he could have gotten quasi-screwed on the scorecards and didn’t. If Usyk slips up even marginally in the rematch, Fury will get his revenge. But Usyk’s resume has reached the point where picking against him seems almost disrespectful. If we really think he’s the pound-for-pound king, he’s the reasonable pick, and my hunch that Usyk obliterated what is left of Fury’s punch resistance in that vicious ninth-round salvo in the first fight makes me think it’ll be by knockout this time. I see Usyk enduring even more adversity than in May, perhaps touching the canvas via legal blow for the first time in years, but arguably the greatest active boxer will add further to his legacy in the end. Prediction: Usyk by KO
Lucas Ketelle: Genius often lies in the obvious. This fight isn’t just about skill, it’s about life decisions. Usyk stayed in the gym, never got out of shape…that matters. Usyk did all the little things that matter, and they’ll add up to winning the big fight. Prediction: Usyk by decision
Jason Langendorf: If there’s a compelling reason to believe that the outcome of Usyk-Fury II will look demonstrably different from that of the original, I haven’t found it. Fury is a huge man and a good fighter, but Usyk is better—simple as that. A technician who understands, exploits and adapts to matchups as well as any fighter, Usyk figures to stay off the ropes, avoid any major risk from Fury’s right hand and chip away until he finds his own openings. Concerns about Usyk’s age (37) and the wear of fighting at heavyweight on a smaller man seem a bit silly given that Fury is 36 and has been as up and down in his fitness journey as White Goodman. Prediction: Usyk by decision
Bernard Neequaye: If Fury is to beat Usyk, I think it has to be by stoppage. Usyk is a more complete fighter than Fury and I’m very confident he will beat Fury again in their rematch.
Although I expect a fiercely contested fight this time around, I think it will be difficult for Fury to deal with Usyk’s power and ring IQ and that is going to win the Ukrainian the fight.
Don’t get me wrong. Fury is one of the best heavyweights in the sport today and will be ready to do anything to claim a significant revenge win, but I believe he will have problems. I see Usyk exploiting Fury’s weaknesses as he comes forward and forcing the “Gypsy King” into mistakes. Prediction: Usyk by decision
Lance Pugmire: This is such a spectacular match, especially knowing the way a fitter, more attentive Tyson Fury adapted to his first loss to Deontay Wilder and then battered the man en route to a dominating TKO. But Usyk is not Wilder. He’s far more skilled. Usyk’s unforgettable rally from the moment he kissed his cross midway through the first fight was beyond gripping and made for such a historic evening. It’s funny how we’re now seeing similarities in the behavior of Fury—limited on-stage comments, no public workout—to that of Wilder following the second loss. Does each man know they’ve met their match? Usyk should be the same determined fighter he’s always been in winning Olympic gold, becoming undisputed champion in two divisions and finding that next gear against Fury. Prediction: Usyk by decision
Declan Warrington: I'd predicted victory for Fury—in an ugly, messy fight—first time around, despite believing he was capable of outboxing Usyk. At the halfway stage of that first fight, with Usyk looking exhausted and Fury in his rhythm, Fury looked on course to build a convincing lead. What then followed wasn't only something for which Usyk deserves considerable credit, but which made me question whether Fury's career, and life outside of the ring, had finally caught up with him.
When Andy Lee, his assistant trainer, then told BoxingScene much more recently that Fury tired as he did because he'd not been able to spar as he ideally would have, because he was recovering from a cut, I was inclined to believe him. By boxing's standards, Lee's got integrity. All of which contributes to making so much around the rematch uncertain.
It's possible Lee's right and yet that what happened in that first fight means that Fury will finally no longer be the fighter he was anyway. It's possible Lee's right and that Fury will impress by boxing similarly to during the first fight and win. It's possible that Lee's wrong, that Fury's career was catching up with him regardless of his preparations, and that Usyk will win again. It's also possible that, second time around, Fury will attempt to force the ugly, messy fight that in so many ways would benefit him anyway.
What's also uncertain is which of the two will benefit more from the first fight. Both are masterful at learning to read and time opponents, and to adapt to them. Both have also won each of the rematches they have entered. It might even be this that determines the outcome in Riyadh.
I believe they're on course for a trilogy, which means I'm predicting victory for Fury, on points. Even if I didn't see what I consider to be a convincing way for Fury to win, I'd be tempted to pick him anyway – the powers that be will want a lucrative third fight, and a lucrative fight between him and Anthony Joshua, too. Prediction: Fury by decision
Elliot Worsell: I picked Usyk ahead of the first fight, which means I should be even more confident that he wins the rematch. But that isn’t really the case. In fact, I think we’ll get a closer fight than the first and this time it will lack the big moment we saw in round nine back in May. That means it will be narrower on the cards and probably end in a draw, at which point we will all turn to see how the AI judge scored it and go with whatever he says. Prediction: Draw
Eric Raskin: The closer we’ve gotten to the opening bell, the more confident I’ve become that, as narrow as his win in the first fight was, Usyk is a clear favorite to repeat the feat. He has a higher ring IQ, makes smarter adjustments, has better footwork, has taken less punishment in the ring, and comes into this fight knowing he can hurt Fury to within an inch of a stoppage, whereas Fury doesn’t know if he can hurt Usyk to the same extent. I don’t expect Fury to drop off a cliff physically, but clearly he’s on a downward trajectory from fight to fight, whereas Usyk gives no indication that he isn’t in his absolute prime. I don’t expect a blowout, by any means, but I anticipate a more clear-cut win for Usyk than the first time around.
And for what it’s worth, the late addition of Steve Weisfeld to the judging panel helps me feel confident in my pick. There was a nagging feeling of “if it’s close, the best outcome for business is a Fury win to set up a rubber match.” We could still get a questionable decision, of course, but Weisfeld, the most reliable judge in boxing, being one of the three official scorers, helps me sleep ever so slightly better going into the fight. Prediction: Usyk by decision
Tris Dixon: The ninth round last time showed us that Fury can be hurt by Usyk. The rest of that bout, I feel, counts for little. The fight now almost feels brand new again, in that I perhaps have a less confident steer on who might win this time.
However, I am going to stick with Usyk, having picked him the first time around. His ability to adapt midfight, and adapt again if necessary, is so slick and he does it so seamlessly. I do subscribe to the opinion that Fury will get old overnight, and if this is not the bout, then it surely is not far off.
But I have admiration for Fury’s courage and heart. He’s told us this on repeat over the years, but he’s a proper fighting man and he showed that again in the first bout in May.
But I think Usyk wins again, and once again I can see Fury enduring some tumultuous moments late on but surviving and losing a decision. Prediction: Usyk by decision