By Rick Reeno
Later tonight at the Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, WBC/WBO middleweight champion Kelly Pavlik (34-0 30KOs) will rise to the agreed upon catch-weight of 170-pounds to face veteran Bernard Hopkins (48-5-1 32KOs). At age 43, Hopkins is 17-years older than the champion. Pavlik wants to put the executioner into retirement, and Hopkins wants to tame the young lion.
The staff of krikya360.com comes together to voice their opinions, strategies and predictions for the big fight.
TK Stewart - Just like he does with all of the opponents he faces, Bernard Hopkins is going to make it a very, very difficult night for Kelly Pavlik. Kelly has never faced anyone near Hopkins' experience level and Bernard's ability to feint, slow down the pace and use his clutch and grab tactics is really going to frustrate Pavlik. I think Pavlik will become very discouraged in the first half of the fight as he struggles to ward off Hopkin's clutching and bull rushes. I can see Pavlik having to deal with cuts because of Hopkins' dirty tactics. I also think that the catch weight of 170 pounds favors Hopkins. However, I see Pavlik's youthful, natural aggression and the fact that he will throw more punches giving him the razor thin nod on the judges scorecards, probably by split-decision. It will be an extremely close fight.
Patrick Kehoe - "Four months from turning 44, Bernard Hopkins seems most intend on frustrating opponents by staying behind his high guard, prevent defensive shell, keeping a fight's action to a boredom inducing minimum, looking for the odd hard counter shot and then claiming he schooled his foe, after losing another decision. And most people in boxing you can talk too think Hopkins can walk around enough, poke and hold enough, to yet again last 12 pedantic rounds, in a losing effort, against Kelly Pavlik. I think Pavlik is going to keep up the heat and hit anything in his path. Long limbed, supple and strong, with a blistering right hand and Carlos Monzon like stamina, Pavlik should batter Hopkins late and cause Hopkins some pain. Toss a coin on the matter ending in a TKO or retirement or decision. Pavlik by unanimous decision in twelve.
Dave Sholler - Kelly Pavlik is the younger, faster fighter with less tread on his tires. Still, Bernard Hopkins will pose plenty of problems for "The Ghost." The Philadelphia native is crafty, hard-nosed, and will undoubtedly put heat on Pavlik early. With all of that being said, Pavlik's youth should be the biggest factor. Given that Hopkins has never been stopped, all signs point to a 12-round battle. Pavlik by decision.
Robert Morales - Bernard Hopkins' "craftiness" shakes up a lot of opponents, but it won't affect Kelly Pavlik like it does others. Pavlik by decision.
Mitch Abramson - Hopkins hasn't fought a serious puncher in some time and Pavlik is a serious puncher. If Hopkins follows through on his pre-fight promise to fight on the inside, I think he gets stopped. If he tries to stay on the outside and move, his legs aren't what they once were and he'll get stopped. That Bernard can take a punch will only prolong the agony. Pavlik by TKO in 10.
Jake Donovan - Pavlik by unanimous decision. Everyone keeps talking about Kelly being the first to stop Bernard, but I don't see it. If anything, I see Pavlik hitting the floor sometime in the first few rounds, but eventually take over the fight. The first half of the fight will be close, the second half will be all Pavlik, leading to the most decisive loss of Hopkins' career since Roy 15 years ago.
Cliff Rold - It’s hard not to pick Pavlik here; an almost-twenty year age advantage is just overwhelming. Some have brought up the ghosts of Archie Moore-Yvonne Durelle thisweek, but Pavlik is no Durelle. Tough as he was, Durelle was never what one would consider one of the game’s best. Pavlik is considered that with room to grow. Hopkins, the cagey veteran, will present puzzles this weekend which allow Pavlik to grow but likely not enough to lead him to defeat. This is a time-honored tradition, a torch passing ceremony as much as a ring contest. Pavlik is prepared for the torch and will seize it within the distance stopping Hopkins for the first time between the tenth and twelfth rounds.
CompuBox/Bob Canobbio - At 6-3 and armed with a 75-inch reach, Pavlik matches up well physically against the 6-1 Hopkins and while he lacked his middleweight explosiveness when he fought Taylor at 164 numbers, not power, is at the heart of Pavlik’s game. As long as Pavlik doesn’t allow his offense to be inhibited by Hopkins’ mind games he has the tools to not only defeat but also dominate Hopkins, who is still “old school” but is also old. Calzaghe’s consistent work forced Hopkins to uncharacteristically show outward signs of discouragement, and should Pavlik follow the Welshman’s lead – and sprinkle in his extra power – don’t be surprised if Pavlik wins by a late-round TKO.
Lyle Fitzsimmons - Bernard Hopkins has managed to rile, style and guile his way through the past seven years since his signature 2001 defeat of Felix Trinidad. But in Kelly Pavlik, he'll finally meet the foe too strong, too determined and too well-prepared to take the bait. Look for the younger and more energetic man to carry the fight from minute one of round one, on the way to becoming the first to stop the "Executioner" in his tracks. Pavlik by KO in 10.
David P. Greisman - When was the last time I enjoyed watching a Bernard Hopkins fight? On a night when a young, powerful champion faces an old, scientifically strategic veteran, the true battle will be between my eyelids and the force of gravity.
Pavlik will do his best to pressure Hopkins, letting loose jabs and power punches. Hopkins will do his best to take away what Pavlik does best. Hopefully this will not be another night of Hopkins making the fans feel worse for watching.
As with Pavlik's rematch against Jermain Taylor, countering off of the jab will keep the Youngstown fighter from doubling it up. But as with so many of Hopkins' recent efforts, those 180 seconds a stanza weren't all made for action.
Pavlik over Hopkins by decision. I wouldn't be surprised if controversy arises. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised, have this prediction turn out wrong and get some bang for my 50 bucks.
Lem Satterfield - Bernard Hopkins over Kelly Pavlik by split-decision. In what will be a grueling bout, Hopkins will hold, hit, and take Pavlik places he’s not been before. It will be controversial, but the old man wins.
Michael Campbell - Pavlik over Hopkins by unanimous decision, 116-112. Pavlik will have the most difficult matchup of his career by facing the defensive mastermind, Hopkins, but Pavlik's punch output is too high and Hopkins' too low for The Executioner to be able to defeat the Ghost.
Ryan Songalia - Initially my thought was that Hopkins stood no chance and that the younger Pavlik was just going to exploit his age advantage en route to a decision win. Then again Hopkins was in a similar position with Tarver when he found a way to get the job done. In that fight Tarver's long frame worked against him. Hopkins has a way of negating an opponent's jab and frame and getting effective work done on the inside.
It's unlikely but a Hopkins win is not out of the question. Does it compel me strongly enough to want to spend money on this card? No way, Jose. If Pavik can forget the Rocky stuff and fight a disciplined, hungry fight like he did in the Taylor rematch, he wins a decision. He needs to force a fast pace but not get ahead of himself trying to knock out Mr. Unknockoutable. I'll take Youth over Experience here but I have plenty of humble pie in the fridge from the Tarver fight should I find myself wrong again.
Joe Harrison - The Hopkins-Pavlik bout will be another battle of youth vs. experience such as when Bernard Hopkins faced Jermain Taylor. As we all know, Taylor came out victorious both times. If anyone thought Taylor was an exceptional boxer, just look at his two bouts against Kelly Pavlik. After defeating Taylor twice, it was Pavlik who turned out to be the exceptional boxer. Pavlik's combination of skill and power makes him one of the most dangerous boxers in the world right now. When Pavlik and Hopkins meet in the ring, youth will prevail again. Pavlik by unanimous decision.
Larry Tornambe - I don’t' like this fight for Pavlik. B-Hop will cause damage on the inside, but he still won't land enough punches to win a boxing match. If this were a street fight, I'd go with Hopkins, based on his experience and the things he'll show Pavlik - especially the inside fighting, tricks, elbows and head bumps. Because this is a boxing match and most of those things won't count on the scorecards - I score Pavlik by decision.
John Hively - Pavlik doesn't have Calzaghe's speed, but he has more power. If Pavlik uses his jab to set up his body shots, he wins, possibly by knockout. If Kelly goes primarily head hunting, he loses. Even if he uses his jab to set up the body shots, he's not going to connect with the jab very often. But the body shots will accumulate and slow Bernard down. Then the Ghost's head shots will begin to connect. Hopkins is a fistic wonder, but at forty-three years old, I think his time has come. Pavlik by knockout assuming his primary attack is against the body.
Ronnie Nathanielsz - When boxing was losing its attraction, fighters like Manny Pacquiao and Kelly Pavlik helped save the day to some extent while ageing fighters like Bernard Hopkins turned fight fans off, basically by his fight tactics of grabbing and holding and using a couple of cheap shots.
For the sake of boxing I would want Pavlik to win and I think if the referee clamps down on the holding I am confident that in the end Pavlik will get to Holmes and do what many believe is impossible - stop him. But it will take some doing, some time and a referee who does the right thing.
Amy Green - The song remains the same...I predicted Pavlik by split decision when their press tour started in August, and haven't changed my mind. Hopkins will employ every tactic in his veteran's repertoire- the smothering defense, the sneaky low stuff on the inside, and an elbow or two. Pavlik's response? Hard shots that crack the veteran's defense, clean, hard flush punches and more speed will all make the difference. And don't count out determination. Pavlik is focused on the win and that only ads to his arsenal. Maybe a knockdown late by Pavlik, but no KO.
Carlos Irusta - Hopkins will win on points. He has a lot of experience, and Pavlik is more than of a puncher than anything else, but he often comes in with his chin exposed.
"JC" Jerry Casarez - Pavlik by unanimous decision. I don't think the question to this fight is who will win, but rather how will Pavlik win? As evident by his performance in the Calzaghe fight, Bernard Hopkins of today is not the same man who once defeated Felix Trinidad in 2001 to solidify himself as a pound for pound Champion. The Hopkins of today sees the openings but can no longer exploit them. Look for the younger Pavlik to work his way behind a hard jab from the outside and punish B Hop to the body from the clinch. A knockout of the great Hopkins would please Top Rank and Team Pavlik, but what I expect is a dominant performance with Bhop seeing the end of 12 rounds. Hopkins being the crafty veteran and proud champion he is will fight through some rough moments and will have to climb off the canvas but he will avoid being stopped.
Michael Doss - I think that the only chance for Hopkins will b early and don’t be surprised if Kelly goes down in the first couple rounds, but the problem is that I don’t think that Hopkins can finish him. Hopkins is a 4 round fighter now, if the fight goes past that then Pavlik wins, I think that Kelly wins a decision.
Troy Ondrizek - Bernard Hopkins has every tool to beat Kelly Pavlik's style. Kelly is the most predictable elite fighter in the game today; he throws a simple one-two left hook over and over again. That combo is utilized by Pavlik until he either hurts his foe or gets them up against the ropes. Hopkins is smart enough to adjust mid-fight and find ways to score rather easily against the simple style of Pavlik. Hopkins also is strong enough to put Pavlik on his seat and is defensive enough to keep from getting hit by Pavlik's big right hand. A younger Hopkins could do all of this for two minutes a round and thus dominate Pavlik. However, while he will fight and find success in spurts, Pavlik's workrate will win over the affair. This fight reminds me very much of Pavlik/Taylor II. Pavlik by unanimous deicsion.
Brent Matteo Alderson - I used to like Hopkins in the 90’s when he took out Joe Lipsey and Echols, but in the 21 century I haven’t been a fan. He is effective, but also very boring. His fights are the kind of battles that make younger fans turn to MMA. When he fought Taylor in the summer of 2005 I made a significant wager on Jermain and wasn’t sure that I won until the cards were announced. And the same thing goes for the second Taylor fight and his fight with Calzaghe; they both could have gone either way. So even though history dictates that Hopkins will be competitive and possibly win, I’m going to bet against the old man again and go with Pavlik by clear decision in manner that is much more decisive
James Blears - Father Time has slowed Bernard Hopkins up. However his craftiness is still as keen as it ever was. All the logical indications point towards Kelly Pavlik, who's younger and fresher. But I've got a sneaking feeling that Bernard is leaving the best to last. He'll catch Kelly coming in and KO him to pull off a sensational upset.
Paul Gallegos - If Kelly get past the first round, then Bernard is going to be in for a short night. I really think that Bernard cannot handle the pace of Pavlik. I wasn't a true believer in Pavlik because of his questionable chin. One thing you cannot question about the guy though is his heart. He picks himself up off the canvass, immediately learns from his mistake and doesn't make it again. He learns as the fight goes on. Bernard on the other hand is just lacking that old zap that he had against Tito. I haven't seen in it in a long time. Hopkins is crafty and wily veteran who can still turn the tables when he needs to, but Kelly is too young, too strong, and has too much heart to lose.
Ernest Gabion - Kelly Pavlik with a late-round TKO. We finally see Hopkins show his age as he will no longer be able to get out of the way of Pavlik's power.
Rick Reeno - I never liked this fight from the start. Pavlik has built a reputation for putting on exciting fights, while Hopkins is the complete opposite. The last time the word excitement was used in a fight involving Bernard was the 01 knockout of Felix Trinidad. I believe Hopkins will hold, elbow, and use every single trick in the book to make the first half of this fight close, to survive the second half, and then to complain about being robbed after Pavlik wins a unanimous decision.