By Oliver Fennell
As British boxing's new year kicks into life this weekend, Oliver Fennell pitches 10 domestic dream fights for 2016, picks winners and wonders whether or not they will actually happen.
Tyson Fury v Anthony Joshua
Why? Now that Britain has a world heavyweight champion again in Tyson Fury, any fight he has at home will draw huge business. This factor will increase exponentially if he vies for an all-British world title fight, and especially if it’s against hot young thing Anthony Joshua. “AJ” arrived on the pay-per-view scene this month, and proved a success both athletically and commercially with his win over Dillian Whyte, and pundits both at home and abroad have him marked down as a future champ. He’s already a star, so just think how big it will be when and if he challenges for a belt – especially Fury’s.
Who would win? Fury would be a big favourite, as he is way more proven than Joshua and is one of the biggest champions of all time. Then again, Fury has shown vulnerability in the past, and if Joshua can carry his power and skill up in class, he could well fulfill his potential on the biggest stage. But Fury hasn’t shown that vulnerability for a while now, as he has honed his craft and become less the brawler of yore, and more of a technician. It is that very transition which enabled him to dethrone Wladimir Klitschko, and which will surely prove too much for Joshua at this stage.
Will it happen? Unlikely, at least this year. Joshua himself has said he’s not yet ready for a world title assault. Might he change his mind by late 2016? There’s also a possibility Fury loses the crown in the next 12 months, and then he may see a non-title match with Joshua as the biggest moneyspinner to come back to.
Tyson Fury v David Haye
Why? This could actually be even bigger than Fury v Joshua. With both men routinely selling fights like WWE wrestlers, the hype would be off the charts. I only ranked Fury v Joshua higher because that is a matchup of twentysomethings, but Haye ‘s return to boxing is of huge interest. Stir in the long-held grudge worsened by Haye pulling out of two previously scheduled Fury matches, add a dash of youth versus experience, and you have a mouthwatering prospect.
Who would win? Last Saturday Haye demolished Mark De Mori in a single round to launch his comeback after three years out. But De Mori presented little to no resistance, which makes it hard to make a decisive pick. But for now, let’s assume we get the best of each fighter. It’s easy to envisage a peak Haye crashing a big right into Fury and finishing what Steve Cunningham started. But Haye has never been aggressive against super-heavyweights. Remember how tentative he was against Klitschko, Nicolai Valuev and even Audley Harrison early on. His best chance is to change this tendency to stand off against the giants, and take the fight straight to Fury. If he does so, he has a great chance. But my pick is for Fury to comfortably contain the smaller man and win on points.
Will it happen? I think so. Haye is one of the biggest names in heavyweight boxing, even after a layoff. Now that he beat De Mori, a title fight will come sooner rather than later. Haye might gamble on beating a “lesser” champ such as Ruslan Chagaev or Charles Martin and making him against Fury a unification bout, but it’s hard to imagine the two not colliding this year – with the winner meeting Anthony Joshua in 2017.
Carl Frampton v Scott Quigg
Why? These two super-bantamweights rose in tandem, and are both now world champions. A match between them has been a natural for years, and is now a must as they both bring major belts to the table. On top of that, both are hugely talented, very exciting, hard-hitting and fit, and motivated all the more by their long-simmering rivalry.
Who would win? It’s always been a tough call, and the two boxers have overtaken each other several times. Most recently, Quigg trumped Frampton by smashing Kiko Martinez – a man who’d gone 21 rounds with Frampton across two fights – in little more than four minutes. Meanwhile, Frampton was floored twice in a struggle against Alejandro Gonzalez Jr. Current form hints to a Quigg win, but I have a feeling Frampton may still be the better talent. His apparent extra power and grit could take him to a hard-fought decision. However, if those knockdowns indicate a chink in his armour, Quigg will exploit it.
Will it happen? Barring injuries or illnesses, we are guaranteed at least one of these 10 dream fights will happen, as Frampton and Quigg are confirmed to meet on Feb 27.
Kell Brook v Amir Khan
Why? Brook has been calling out Khan since he was a prospect and Khan was an A-lister. At first it looked preposterous, but Brook has kept winning, and won and defended the IBF world title. At the same time, Khan has been sporadically active. Simply put, Brook has caught up and is firmly among the welterweight elite. In the post-Mayweather era, and in boxing’s most competitive division, this domestic dust-up would do big business, and would almost certainly be an exciting clash of fast-handed skillsters.
Who would win? Khan would still be favourite – for now – but the more time passes, the less Khan fights, and the more momentum Brook builds, the odds will continue to narrow. If they fought next time out, I’d pick Khan to win a close but unanimous decision. If they fight later in 2016, with Brook having continued to win and Khan fighting no more than once, I might lean the other way.
Will it happen? Khan understandably has been holding out on the possibility of a blockbuster showdown with Floyd Mayweather or Manny Pacquiao, but now those fights look less likely than ever, and Khan has been without a belt since moving up to welterweight. Khan might now concede Brook is his best option.
Billy Joe Saunders v Chris Eubank Jr 2
Why? After putting on a sizzling grudge match 14 months ago, their rivalry was far from settled. Saunders deserved the win, but Eubank finished stronger, and the feeling was he could do even better in a second showdown. Since then, Saunders has won the WBO middleweight title, and Eubank’s own improvement has been clear to see. A rematch with a major title on the line would be a natural.
Who would win? Now Eubank knows he can go 12 and also finish strong, he won’t make such a cautious start next time. Saunders, on the other hand, showed his trademark late fade once again in winning the WBO belt from Andy Lee. Saunders has the belt but Eubank has shown the greater improvement, and I think he will make the better adjustments in the rematch, and win on points.
Will it happen? Eubank most certainly wants revenge, but last time out he won a WBA eliminator, so champion Danny Jacobs is in his immediate sights. If Eubank can unseat Jacobs, him against Saunders would be even bigger as a unification battle. But I feel boxing politics will continue to keep these two apart.
Terry Flanagan v Anthony Crolla
Why? Neither man would have been picked for world honours this time last year, but both triumphed against the odds and lifted lightweight crowns. Now, not only are they world titlist compatriots, both are from the same city of Manchester. It would be a fantastic match anyway, but the derby angle would make for an incredible hometown atmosphere.
Who would win? Crolla looked sensational in winning the WBA belt, and Flanagan looked an absolute beast in his TKO 2 demolition of Diego Magdaleno in defending his WBO version. He would start favourite. However, if Crolla comes through against mandatory contender Ismael Barroso, that may force a rethink. For now, I’ll go for Flanagan on a late stoppage.
Will it happen? It depends on the outcome of Crolla v Barroso, who looked monstrous in thrashing long-time contender Kevin Mitchell in December. If Crolla wins, a unification battle would be a natural for the summer. Even if he loses in competitive fashion, he might still be an attractive voluntary defence for Flanagan later in the year.
Jamie McDonnell v Lee Haskins 2
Why? In 2008, McDonnell and Haskins met in a low-key eight-rounder won by a single-point margin by Haskins. McDonnell was unproven and Haskins was struggling to get fights. Eight years later, a lot has changed, and both have risen to world title level. Haskins got the better of their last fight, but McDonnell stole a march on him, winning two major bantamweight belts and defending in the US. Haskins took a longer and more arduous route to world glory, and his coronation was a damp squib, when he was handed the belt after IBF holder Randy Caballero failed to make weight. Haskins has yet to defend, but he would love a chance to add McDonnell’s WBA crown at the same time as he legitimises his own. And McDonnell, of course, would get a chance to avenge one of his two defeats.
Who would win? McDonnell is by far the more accomplished world champ, now 5-0 at that level. Haskins, though, has that all-important win over his rival. However, I believe the momentum is with Jamie, especially coming off two marvelous wins over Tomoki Kameda stateside, and his better technical skills can trump Haskins’ unorthodox moves and power. McDonnell by majority decision.
Will it happen? I get the feeling it won’t. They are in different camps and on different TV channels, and while that is not always insurmountable, they unfortunately are not big enough stars to generate the kind of public clamour that would force the promoters’ hands.
James DeGale v George Groves 2
Why? Fans have itched for a rerun of this rivalry ever since their 2011 sizzler, won by the thinnest of margins by Groves. DeGale has gone on to win IBF world honours, while Groves is a three-time bridesmaid at the highest level. Those three defeats have been with valour, though, and he remains very much a major player at 12st. He is a natural challenger for DeGale, in a fight that would rekindle one domestic boxing’s more intense recent grudges and better fights.
Who would win? Given current form, DeGale would be an obvious and deserved favourite. However, if Groves should mount some impressive momentum in 2016 and the rematch happens late in the year, it could look different. For now, DeGale is the pick for a revenge points win.
Will it happen? There’s a pretty good chance. DeGale is eyeing a unification match with Badou Jack (WBC), but melding belts is always easier said than done. Groves in the last third of the year would make a lot of sense.
Lee Selby v Josh Warrington
Why? Fast-rising Warrington is gaining on Selby and is arguably in a similar position to where the Welshman was a year ago. Selby won the IBF featherweight title in imperious fashion in 2015, while Warrington climbed the world rankings himself and started snapping at Lee’s heels. With a touch more seasoning, he would be a very credible challenger for Selby in the second half of the year. It would be a compelling matchup too, with Selby’s dazzling skills meshing with Warrington’s punishing pace. And if it went ahead in the wildly popular Josh’s hometown of Leeds, the atmosphere would be crackling.
Who would win? Selby looked nigh-on unbeatable until his last bout, when wily veteran Francisco Montiel made him look a tad mortal. For sure, Warrington is still more prospect than contender, but his sheer energy could ruffle the smoother champion. But his relative lack of power might cost him at the top level, and Selby can settle after a fast start and then secure a stoppage in the third quarter.
Will it happen? There’s a good chance it will. There are no political obstacles, and neither man has an obvious bigger or more lucrative challenge on the immediate horizon. Stoke the fires through the first half of the year, then let them at it.
Luke Campbell v Ricky Burns
Why? This would be a classic meeting of young prodigy against seasoned vet, and if anything would be even more compelling now that Campbell has lost his precious zero. Now we know he can be beaten, whereas he might have been a strong favourite against Burns before. Former two-weight champ Burns is certainly a more accomplished operator than Yvan Mendy, who scalped Campbell last month. It’s now a pick-em fight, with a “loser leaves town” feel to it, and would almost certainly be entertaining. When is Burns ever not?
Who would win? Past his peak Burns may be, but he still has a formidable engine and would enter this with the deserved confidence of someone who knows he’s beaten better than the likes of Mendy and Campbell. The outcome might depend a lot on how Campbell deals with his maiden pro defeat. Any damage to his psyche will be capitalised on by a campaigner as experienced as Burns, but if Campbell can learn his lessons and come back better for the experience, he can win. You’d like to think a gold chip prospect like Campbell will respond appropriately, and if so, he’s the pick. But the Luke of the Mendy match would lose again to Burns.
Will it happen? I think not. Campbell will likely spend the first half of the year in rehab mode, while Burns has his hopes set on more title shot. Consequently, neither man fits the other’s agenda for the time being.
LAST YEAR
Not one of my 10 picks came to fruition in 2015. Khan figured Brook was too big a risk while he waited (in vain) for Mayweather or Pacquiao. Carl Froch’s retirement ended talk of a DeGale defence. DeGale and Groves took separate paths to world titles, and only one of them succeeded. Kid Galahad failed a drug test, ruling out any chance of a Quigg fight (or any other, for that matter). Saunders and Eubank circled each other for 12 months. Campbell – justifiably, in hindsight – was kept away from Derry Mathews. David Price relocated to Germany, where he lost, ending any chance of a Joshua clash. McDonnell had bigger goals than renewing his rivalry with Stuart Hall, and Selby overtook Warrington – at least for now. Quigg v Frampton led the pack, but at least they are ready to lock horns next month.
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