By Keith Idec
When Manny Pacquiao announced through a spokesperson earlier this week that he’ll fight Jessie Vargas on November 5, most people that follow boxing closely weren’t the least bit surprised.
Vargas (27-1, 10 KOs) is much more beatable than Terence Crawford (29-0, 20 KOs), the other potential opponent promoter Bob Arum “presented” to Pacquiao upon arriving in the Philippines to wrap up negotiations for the briefly retired Pacquiao’s return to the ring. And winning his next fight is more imperative than usual for the 37-year-old Pacquiao (58-6-2, 38 KOs) because the aging legend wants to remain in position to land what many industry insiders consider an inevitable rematch against Floyd Mayweather Jr.
The 39-year-old Mayweather obviously doesn’t need to return to the ring for financial reasons. The Grand Rapids, Michigan, native has already defeated Pacquiao pretty easily, though, and could find it difficult to stay away from the extremely bright spotlight and nine-figure payday a rematch would offer the undefeated five-division champion.
Pacquiao covets not only another enormous payday for facing Mayweather, but the opportunity to prove his right shoulder injury at least played a part in Mayweather’s indisputable unanimous-decision victory over him in May 2015 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Enter Las Vegas’ Vargas, a Top Rank-promoted opponent Timothy Bradley defeated convincingly until Vargas caught him with a right hand with about 20 seconds to go in a 12-round fight confused referee Pat Russell stopped about eight seconds too early 13½ months ago in Carson, California. That’s the same Timothy Bradley that Pacquiao has, for all intents and purposes, soundly defeated three times in the past four years.
Their dissimilar performances against Bradley are among numerous reasons Vargas appears to be less of a threat than the diversely skilled Crawford to top Pacquiao and all but eliminate a Mayweather rematch as a viable option for sometime in 2017. From that strictly business standpoint, it made more sense for Pacquiao to pick Vargas over Crawford, despite the understandable backlash from fans growing increasingly irritated by Arum’s pay-per-view events this year.
While Pacquiao’s announcement regarding Vargas wasn’t surprising, Arum’s subsequent statement about their November 5 bout could help reshape pay-per-view boxing and the balance of power among networks that televise the sport.
Apparently past his doomed-to-fail boxing media boycott, Arum told the Los Angeles Daily News for Wednesday’s editions, “We’re going to be distributing [Pacquiao-Vargas] in other ways, but it will definitely not be distributed by HBO Pay-Per-View.”
As is the case with many of Arum’s proclamations, this clearly could change. HBO Sports is believed to own the contractual right of first refusal for Pacquiao’s pay-per-view events.
Losing even this less-profitable Pacquiao to a less-experienced pay-per-view competitor would be yet another damaging blow to HBO’s boxing brand during a year in which the long-powerful premium-cable channel’s reputation has been battered due to a series of mismatches it has televised live on the network.
HBO’s pay-per-view offerings thus far this year – which include the much-maligned Pacquiao-Bradley III, Canelo Alvarez-Amir Khan, Crawford-Viktor Postol and Alvarez-Liam Smith – haven’t exactly inspired optimism among boxing enthusiasts, either. Pacquiao-Vargas would extend that dubious list, yet also keep Pacquiao away from ESPN, rumored to be the front-runner to distribute Pacquiao-Vargas, and premium-cable rival Showtime.
If this were all about Pacquiao-Vargas and comparable Pacquiao pay-per-view events in 2017, HBO Sports and higher-ranking Time Warner executives would have an easier decision to make because Pacquiao’s pay-per-view figures have slipped in recent years other than the Mayweather fight. But it isn’t – not even close.
As long as a Pacquiao-Mayweather rematch is even a remote possibility, it would behoove HBO Sports to remain in the Manny Pacquiao business.
As much warranted resentment as Mayweather’s win over Pacquiao instilled inside casual and hardcore boxing fans alike, a rematch remains the most profitable fight the sport could produce, assuming Mayweather would at least consider coming back for it. It wouldn’t come close to eclipsing the astonishing $600 million-plus that their first fight produced in pay-per-view sales, gate receipts and additional revenues. Mayweather-Pacquiao II would, however, receive more mainstream media attention than any other boxing match because they remain the two biggest superstars in this sport and have such a long, complicated, well-known history with one another.
For argument’s sake, let’s lowball the projection and concede that the rematch could draw half of the record-setting 4.6 million pay-per-view buys their first fight did. That’s still 2.3 million buys, more buys than all but two fights in the sport’s history (their first fight and Mayweather-Oscar De La Hoya in May 2007). Even if Mayweather-Pacquiao II generated only 2 million buys, that’s more than twice as many buys as the next-closest fight that didn’t involve either of them during the past two calendar years (approximately 900,000 buys for Alvarez-Miguel Cotto in November 2015).
That should make remaining Pacquiao’s pay-per-view distributor important to HBO Sports. ESPN executives obviously believe in Pacquiao’s pay-per-view potential, particularly against Mayweather (49-0, 26 KOs). They wouldn’t be considering returning to this space if they didn’t, especially after ESPN’s previous boxing pay-per-view ventures failed to meet the network’s needs.
It would be an even greater get for Showtime Sports to pull Pacquiao away from HBO again, the way the CBS-owned network did when the Filipino superstar fought Shane Mosley in May 2011. That’d also result in Showtime taking away the two biggest stars in boxing from HBO within a 3½-year span.
For Arum, both ESPN and Showtime are attractive alternatives to HBO as Pacquiao pay-per-view distributors due to the expansive reach those networks offer for selling fights through respective sister networks ABC (ESPN) and CBS (Showtime).
Mayweather, meanwhile, doesn’t owe CBS/Showtime any bouts because his 12-round unanimous-decision defeat of Andre Berto 11 months ago marked the end of the record-breaking, six-fight contract he signed with CBS/Showtime in February 2013. CBS/Showtime offered Mayweather another multi-fight contract following the Berto bout, but he turned down that offer.
Still, Mayweather might be partial to CBS/Showtime because of how much money they made together during those aforementioned six fights. But ESPN also has a working relationship with Mayweather’s influential adviser, Al Haymon, whose Premier Boxing Champions organization regularly televises fights on that network. Haymon has re-established a strong partnership with Showtime this year as well, which might impact Mayweather’s network decision if he comes back.
However it unfolds, Arum’s statement this week about HBO Pay-Per-View was much more surprising and interesting than Pacquiao’s expected announcement about facing Vargas.
Keith Idec covers boxing for The Record and Herald News, of Woodland Park, N.J., and krikya360.com. He can be reached on Twitter @Idecboxing.