By Charles Jay

THE BODOG LINE

Wladimir Klitschko  -600

Lamon Brewster +350

Under 7.5 rounds  -140

Over 7.5 rounds -- Even

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People have a tendency to overreact to fighters, especially in the heavyweight division, often on the basis of fights that shouldn't be a reliable barometer. You've heard about "great white hopes" or lately "great American hopes." Well, let's just say people are extremely "hopeful." A couple of years ago, the subject of a lot of this hope was Lamon Brewster, a fighter who had lost to fighters like Charles Shufford and Cliff Etienne but then pulled a rabbit out of a hat to knock out Wladimir Klitschko for the WBO heavyweight title in April 2004.

In subsequently defending his crown against Andrew Golota in rather sensational fashion (after barely scraping by against Kali Meehan), Brewster became, in the minds of many, the warrior who was going to bring some American pride back to the division.

If you don't have all the goods, however, you can't play that role for too long a time. This era is roughly reminiscent of the heavyweight field that was present when I first became immersed in boxing full-time a little more than 20 years ago. Larry Holmes was pretty much on his way out, and a bunch of less-than-great heavyweight champions passed the titles around a bit.

Let's see, we had Pinklon Thomas, Tony Tubbs, Tony Tucker, Greg Page, Gerrie Coetzee, Michael Dokes, Bonecrusher Smith, Trevor Berbick, Mike Weaver, and I must say, a rather underrated heavyweight in Tim Witherspoon. These guys hung around, until Mike Tyson came along to clean out the whole weight class.

The only difference between those guys and what we have around today is that, as a group, the guys of the present aren't as good. But they do have some of the same characteristics, namely, that any one of them is good enough, or bad enough, as it were, to lose to anyone else on any given day. Brewster eventually lost a relatively unremarkable fighter named Sergei Liakovich, who in turn lost to the less-than-inspiring Shannon Briggs, who did nothing for the first eleven rounds before pulling it out, but then passed the hot potato on to Sultan Ibragimov, who may or may not turn out to be rather unremarkable himself.

Klitschko is not immune to some of that curse, having been taken out by the likes of Ross Puritty and Corrie Sanders, who actually had to interrupt his golf game to climb into the ring and dispatch Wlad within four minutes in March 2003.

Heavyweights, as a general rule, are big enough that they can conceivably knock you out if they hit you solidly enough. That's the "pitcher" part of the equation.

There's a "catcher" part that's important too. This is what will keep Wladimir Klitschko from being a complete heavyweight, as much as HBO and a lot of other folks would love to give him a coronation. He will fall if you hit him just right. That's been demonstrated. Sometimes he's had the resiliency to come back, as he did after hitting the canvas a few times against power-punching Sam Peter. He had enough in the way of boxing skills to keep the rather raw Peter at bay for most of the evening, though I must say I'd have to go with the Nigerian if they met up again.

That having been said, Klitschko put his skills on display, with devastating effect, when he faced Brewster previously. Well, at least until he got tired and got caught. So the question, I guess, becomes whether he can do something similar this time around and NOT get tired and NOT get nailed. I think he has the ability to do so. Few would argue that for his size, he is tremendous agile, and he has above-average ring intelligence. To the extent this fight has intrigue, it is supplied by Klitschko's chin, which may not have been at much risk against the likes of Chris Byrd - an exception to that general rule we were talking about a minute ago - but will be here.

There is no question that Wladimir Klitschko is the fighter who is "less ordinary" in this matchup, and that gives him a fundamental edge.

But like everything else, we've got to look at things relative to the price. And this is where it gets interesting.

Currently Brewster is listed at +350 to win according to , and +500 (5/1) to win the fight inside the distance by stoppage, KO or DQ..

For those of you who are unfamiliar with the odds work, when they put Brewster down at +500, that means you would get paid on the basis that he has a 16.7% chance (one out of six) of winning the fight via that route. I think he's got a better shot than that, especially since I don't see this fight going the full route, and therefore I believe there is "value" in that proposition. You know, if a guy doesn't really have a chance, it doesn't make a difference whether he's getting 20/1 or 100/1, frankly. But this is different.

Here we have a guy who's pulled off the knockout over this opponent already. There has to be some kind of psychological edge in that, if he knows how to use it. He's not an old man. He's not necessarily beat up or a shot fighter. The Liakovich fight was a good one - Brewster just didn't want it enough.

And then there's Klitschko's weak chin, which can change the nature of a fight in an instant.

That's enough for me to take a shot here, grabbing the +500, even though I think Klitschko is, on balance, a better fighter. Of course, just to cover ourselves; just to allow for the possibility that this time Wladimir will complete the early blowout, we can get decent odds on an early KO - 9/1 in the second round and 9/1 for the third. We can throw a token play down on those props as a hedge.

JAY'S PLAYS:

Brewster by KO, TKO or DQ:  +500 ***

Klitschko by 2nd-round KO:  +900 *

Klitschko by 3rd-round KO: +900 *

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