International Boxing Hall of Fame electors received their 2025 ballots in the mail this week. The “modern” category page features one absolute sure-shot, slam-dunk, if-he-doesn’t-get-voted-in-we-riot candidate in Manny Pacquiao. And it includes 41 other nominees who can’t reasonably feel confident until the phone call from Ed Brophy comes.

On the morning of October 13, Dmitry Bivol and Artur Beterbiev will be divided into the same two groupings.

They meet this Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to unify all light heavyweight titles, lineal and alphabet. Whoever wins will, like Pacquiao, waltz into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot, three years after he retires. Whoever loses will, barring a future legacy-altering victory, someday find himself on that Hall of Fame ballot, uncertain of his fate.

Bivol vs. Beterbiev has all the stakes.

Two perfect records on the line? Check.

Clear top two in the division determining undisputed supremacy for the moment? Check.

All-time greatness, a place in future rankings of the best in division history, and a plaque on the wall in Canastota? That’s the cherry on top.

That’s not to say that the HOF candidacies of Bivol and Beterbiev are identical, mind you. Let’s explore each individually, because one definitely has more wiggle room in case of a loss this Saturday than does the other.

Bivol is the man for whom the difference between victory and defeat in Riyadh is less stark.

Win, and he’s in — end of story. He will have improved his record to 24-0, he will have unified the division and claimed the lineal title, and he will have added Beterbiev’s name to a resume that already includes one no-brainer first-ballot Hall of Famer in Saul “Canelo” Alvarez. Assuming Bivol beats Beterbiev in some valid fashion — not a robbery on the scorecards, not a fluky injury surrender before the fight has a chance to heat up — there isn’t a world in which Hall of Fame voters aren’t overwhelmingly supporting him.

If he loses to Beterbiev, well, he’s a big ol’ maybe.

Bivol will have enjoyed a nice, long, seven-year alphabet title reign — but with only one of the belts, a belt he never truly won in the ring (he beat Felix Valera for “interim” status, then was elevated to the full title between his wins over Cedric Agnew and Trent Broadhurst, and those names ought to tell you everything you need to know about how the alphabet groups have cheapened the word “champion” and, with it, the entire sport of boxing). Throughout Bivol’s tenure, there was always someone else in possession of the true lineal championship.

As for the quality of the names on Bivol’s record, Canelo alone gets him IBHOF consideration, but it falls off considerably from there. He outpointed 36-year-old former champ Jean Pascal, who had lost three of his previous seven, but was not a completely spent bullet. He dominated credible contender Joe Smith Jr. He easily decisioned previously undefeated Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez. And that’s about it — after that, we dip into the Sullivan Barreras and Isaac Chilembas.

Is that the body of work of a Hall of Famer, if he comes up short against Beterbiev? It depends how much weight defeating Canelo carries with voters. It’s surely enough to get Bivol on a ballot that runs 42 names deep, but it’s tough to promise him any more than that.

That said, his story wouldn’t necessarily be finished after a loss to Beterbiev. Bivol is 33 years old. That’s barely middle-aged for a modern light heavyweight. He will have time, post-Beterbiev, to bolster his credentials.

Beterbiev, on the other hand, likely will not. The Bivol fight will be his last while in his 30s — he turns 40 in January. And he hasn’t exactly been the healthiest 30-something. He’s had repeated knee problems: a ruptured meniscus that prevented the Bivol showdown from happening on June 1, and what his camp termed a “minor knee surgery” that postponed a fight in 2022. He also had a bone infection in 2023 that forced him to undergo jaw surgery.

In short, if he loses to Bivol, it could easily be his last opportunity for a legacy-making fight, or perhaps even his last fight, period.

Still, even if he was to lose to Bivol and never fight again, there could be a Hall of Fame case to make for Beterbiev. It would largely be powered by two numbers. The first number is 20 — the consecutive knockout wins with which he started his career. The second number is five — the years he reigned as lineal light heavyweight champion of the world.

It’s tough to deny any fighter who ruled a division for five years or more. The hitch is that if Beterbiev loses to Bivol, it retroactively changes the perception of that reign. Yes, Beterbiev held the true title. But if Bivol beats him now, it suggests Beterbiev was second best all along.

The biggest thing holding back Beterbiev, however, is his opposition. He has defeated several very good light heavyweights. He has not defeated anything close to a great light heavyweight. There is nobody on his record who has even a faint chance of landing on the Hall of Fame ballot, never mind getting voted in. Bivol has Canelo. Beterbiev has … Gvozdyk? Callum Smith? Joe Smith Jr.? Anthony Yarde? Marcus Browne? Faded Tavoris Cloud and Gabriel Campillo?

Even after starting his career 20-0 (20 KOs) and holding the legit championship for five years (and an alphabet title for seven), if he’s 20-1 (20 KOs) a week from now, it’s not a Hall of Fame BoxRec page.

That doesn’t mean he can’t get the votes, of course. It just means he’d be leaving it in the hands of the voters to debate and decide, whereas if he defeats Bivol, there’s nothing to debate.

Even as the figurative goalposts shift and the IBHOF becomes gradually less exclusive than it once was, Pacquiao is the only fighter among the “moderns” on this year’s ballot who removed all debate from the voters’ minds. Everyone else is somewhere between “borderline Hall of Famer” and “lucky to be on the ballot.”

Electors are instructed to vote for up to five boxers, with the top three getting in. So — pardon me if I’m wielding inappropriate influence before the voting window has closed — that means voting for Pacquiao and up to four others, with Pacquiao and two others gaining entry.

In addition to Pacquiao, the other three first-timers on the ballot are Lucian Bute, Mikey Garcia, and Shawn Porter. I don’t mean to be disrespectful. They were all fine and brave fighters. But, remember that “lucky to be on the ballot” note two paragraphs ago? Either Bivol or Beterbiev could get KO’d in the first round on Saturday and never fight again and they’d probably have a slightly better HOF case than any among that trio.

But the ballot is loaded with fighters in a range similar to where either Beterbiev or Bivol would be after absorbing a loss in Riyadh. I see reasonable cases for and against voting for (listed alphabetically): Nigel Benn, Joel Casamayor, Chris Eubank, Genaro Hernandez, Santos Laciar, Michael Nunn, Veeraphol Sahaprom, Israel Vazquez, Wilfredo Vazquez, or Pongsaklek Wonjongkam. And I’m sure other boxing media members I respect can make cases of their own for a handful of other names on the ballot.

What are you looking for? Pure numbers? Then you may lean toward Pongsaklek, who retired with a record of 91-5-2 (47 KOs), including one alphabet title reign that featured 17 successful defenses. Or perhaps Veeraphol, who went 66-4-2 (46 KOs) and had one reign that stretched 13 defenses.

Need a guy with wins over Hall of Famers? Diego Corrales was inducted last year, and Casamayor beat him twice in three tries. Hernandez had a tremendous victory over an aging Azumah Nelson. Vazquez scored two wins in his extraordinary series with Rafael Marquez.

It is called the Hall of Fame, so perhaps popularity matters to you — it undoubtedly helped Corrales and Ricky Hatton get over the line last year. These resumes may be lacking in certain regards, but the likes of Vinny Paz and Fernando Vargas are on the ballot and were beloved in ways few fighters are.

Whoever wins Bivol vs. Beterbiev will instantly have a stronger argument in favor of Hall induction than any of those fighters mentioned above save for Pacquiao — to the point that there won’t be any reasonable argument against them.

But whoever loses lands somewhere in that hazy zone, where fans are left debating their longevity, their quality of opposition, and their dominance at their peak.

Beterbiev, the puncher in Saturday’s matchup, has never in his career left it in the hands of the judges. Bivol, the boxer in Saturday’s championship bout, has let the judges decide in nine of his last 10 fights.

One of them will take determinations about his legacy out of the judges’ hands. The other will have to sweat it out until the final scorecards are read.

Eric Raskin is a veteran boxing journalist with more than 25 years of experience covering the sport for such outlets as BoxingScene, ESPN, Grantland, Playboy, Ringside Seat, and The Ring (where he served as managing editor for seven years). He also co-hosted The HBO Boxing Podcast, Showtime Boxing with Raskin & Mulvaney, The Interim Champion Boxing Podcast with Raskin & Mulvaney, and Ring Theory. He has won three first-place writing awards from the BWAA, for his work with The Ring, Grantland, and HBO. Outside boxing, he is the senior editor of and the author of 2014’s . He can be reached on or , or via email at RaskinBoxing@yahoo.com.