Abner Mares-Leo Santa Cruz: Pre-Fight Report Card

by Cliff Rold

Abner Mares was one of the hottest fighters in the world before a heat-seeking missile from Johnny Gonzalez blew him off the rails. Since the loss, Mares hasn’t quite looked top shelf and many wonder if Gonzalez took more from him than his undefeated record.

Leo Santa Cruz, with titles at 118 and 122 lbs., was building momentum until a series of three consecutive soft mismatches changed public esteem about his career.

Saturday night on on ESPN (10 PM EST/7 PM PST), someone is going to have a chance to get their house in order in a big way. If the fight produces the thrills some hope for, it could be the sort of night that improves the regard for both men.

It took a little longer to arrive than some would have liked but it’s here.

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Abner Mares

Age: 29

Title: None

Previous Titles: IBF Bantamweight (2011-12, 1 Defense); WBC Super Bantamweight (2012-13, 1 Defense); WBC Featherweight (2013)

Height: 5’4 ½

Weight: 125.2 lbs.

Hails from: Montebello, California (Born in Mexico)

Record: 29-1-1, 15 KO

Rankings: #4 (ESPN, Ring), #5 (TBRB), #7 (BoxRec), #8 (BoxingScene) 


Record in Major Title Fights: 5-1-1, 1 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 8 (Isidro Garcia RTD7; Yonnhy Perez D12; Vic Darchinyan SD12; Joseph Agbeko MD12, UD12; Eric Morel UD12; Anselmo Moreno UD12; Daniel Ponce De Leon TKO9; Johnny Gonzalez KO by 1)

Vs.

Leo Santa Cruz


Age: 27

Title: WBC Super Bantamweight (2013-Present, 4 Defenses)

Previous Titles: IBF Bantamweight (2012-13, 3 Defenses)

Height: 5’7 ½

Weight: 124.8 lbs.



Hails from: Rosemead, California (Born in Mexico)

Record: 30-0-1, 17 KO

Rankings: All at 122 lbs. - #2 (Ring), #3 (BoxingScene, TBRB, ESPN, BoxRec)

Record in Major Title Fights: 9-0, 5 KO

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 4 (Eric Morel TKO5; Alexander Munoz TKO5; Victor Terrazas KO3; Cristian Mijares UD12)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Mares B+; Santa Cruz B

Before getting too far into the analysis of the fight, a brief aside on the stakes.

How the hell is this fight for the WBA “Super” designation as their Featherweight titlist? When previous “Super” champ Nicholas Walters lost his title on the scales, Jesus Cuellar should have assumed the role as top WBA champ in the division (because they can’t have one, right?). Now, a guy with no wins over serious Featherweights (Santa Cruz) and a guy without any since losing the WBC title in 2013 (Mares) are fighting for a designation that is supposed to be for fighters who beat a “Super” champ or have a certain number of title defenses.

The WBA rules allow for exceptional circumstances. That must be code for ‘make this nonsense up as we go.’ It’s yet another reminder that sanctioning body titles have little to do with merit and everything to do with marketing. The winner should have to fight Cuellar. Under the PBC banner, that might be possible. However, Cuellar loses any leverage he might have should a fight go to purse bids.

It’s comedy with consequences.

Let it take nothing from the match itself. This is a well-made contest between a pair of exciting battlers who both need the win in a big way.

One thing that stands out on the tale of the tape is the edge in height for Santa Cruz. He’s relatively tall for the divisions he competes in, on paper a little taller than Johnny Gonzalez. A skilled in-fighter, Santa Cruz uses his height well before matters get to close quarters. He has a long, quick, hard jab.

Quickness will be a factor for both men. While neither is blazing fast, both have better hand speed than it appears and can be sudden to target. On tape, Santa Cruz looks to have a slight edge in hand speed. Could his reach and height edges make that slight edge even bigger?

Mares has shown good but not great power, dropping the typically sturdy Anselmo Moreno and blasting out Ponce De Leon (who, outside fights with Juan Manuel Lopez could usually take well). Santa Cruz was impressive in blowing out Terrazas but seems more punishing than concussive on most nights.

Inside, the edge might belong to Santa Cruz. He puts shots together to the body and, while Mares does too, will throw more of them. Mares has never been shy about working the hips and even the cup. That may come into play as he tries to keep Santa Cruz from gaining momentum in the trenches.  

Both have shown they can take good shots, the Gonzalez loss not withstanding for Mares.

That may have been a classic case of a fighter caught cold by a massive puncher. It happens. How a fighter rebounds can vary. In the case of Mares, he’s appeared more tentative in two of his last three fights. That could also be about motivation. After a string of tough fights, it can’t be easy to get up the same way for lesser fare.

In the case of Santa Cruz, the question is whether he’s grown stagnant fighting lesser lights. Can just being active and collecting less wear be enough to overcome a sizable experience advantage? Is this the moment where he realizes his potential or exposes why his handlers have been so careful with him?

Mares has seen a little bit of everything, having won the Showtime Bantamweight tournament and surviving a strong rally down the stretch from Moreno in an excellent battle. What he hasn’t seen since Gonzalez is a legitimate physical threat. Is he all the way back? Even if he is, is he good enough to beat the package in front of him?

It’s a fight where those questions all add up with the right kind of suspense.  

The Pick

It’s rare to change a pick and until a day out from the fight (including in picks for RingTV.com), the nod here was Mares. Another look at the film and the size of the fighters has created a change. Santa Cruz is considerably taller considering the weight class and, while he is technically coming up the scale, should be the bigger man in the ring. Mares is average sized for Featherweight and he probably won’t be as quick as Santa Cruz. That speed edge, and his long jab, will work big for Santa Cruz. It’s going to be a fun fight but Mares will have to work harder to get inside than Santa Cruz will to keep him away and that will make it easier for Santa Cruz when they get to the trenches. Couple it with Santa Cruz’s volume work rate and this has the look of a decision win for the younger man with less miles. 

Report Card and Staff Picks 2015: 62-15

Cliff’s Notes…

The Mares-Santa Cruz undercard has a potential Jr. Featherweight gem as well. If Santa Cruz wins Saturday, and elects to stay at Featherweight, the interim WBC title designation on the line could quickly become the whole enchilada…Hugo Ruiz (35-2, 31 KO) has won four in a row since a loss to Koki Kameda at Bantamweight. Julio Ceja (29-1, 26 KO) has won five straight since a failed 122 lb. title opportunity versus Jamie McDonnell. The styles should mix nicely. This ESPN outing has a chance to make a run at the Figueroa-Burns/McDonnell-T. Kameda doubleheader that still stands as PBC’s best show to date. This corner likes the younger Ceja over Ruiz…For what it’s worth, expecting Shane Mosley to stop Ricardo Mayorga in their rematch at a separate southern California card.

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com